FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 March 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 54% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 46% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.17 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.758 / defence 1.280 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.011 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.399. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 FC Augsburg games / 24 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 51%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.96. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Friday 12 Mar 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Augsburg 1.17 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.758 / def 1.280 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.011 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 12 March 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg 3 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 23% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
23%
4.39
26%
3.79
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.98
1.81
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
4%
26.84
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.81 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 5D 12L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (8W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.08 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 2W 3D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.67 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 75%.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 7W 5D 12L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 8W 9D 7L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 0.82 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 54%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Augsburg) and 73% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Augsburg's games and 73% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of FC Augsburg's matches and 73% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.17 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.81 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.76 / defence 1.28 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.01 / defence 1.31, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 23% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 51%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 46%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.08 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.