FC Augsburg 0-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (34%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Augsburg face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 May 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Augsburg, 2 for Borussia Dortmund and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 3–4 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 61% and Borussia Dortmund 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 54% | Borussia Dortmund 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.29 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.727 / defence 0.899 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.130 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.279. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 FC Augsburg games / 66 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Borussia Dortmund 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Augsburg 1.29 / Borussia Dortmund 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.727 / def 0.899 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.130 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Borussia Dortmund xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC Augsburg 0 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 34% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (3 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 1 | Borussia Dortmund 2W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.73) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
34%
2.95
32%
3.15
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.59
1.30
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.30 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg come into this having played 66 games, going 19W 15D 32L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 2.06 PPG from 66 outings (43W 7D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Augsburg's home form reads 13W 8D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.64 points per game from 33 outings (16W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Dortmund's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.47 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 67%.
Last 66 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 19W 15D 32L in their last 66 games (1.09 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 43W 7D 16L in their last 66 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.42 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 61%, Borussia Dortmund 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FC Augsburg) and 61% (Borussia Dortmund).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Augsburg's games and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC Augsburg 0-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.29 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.30 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.73 / defence 0.90 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 32% | Borussia Dortmund 34%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 54%, Borussia Dortmund 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.