FC Augsburg 1-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Augsburg, 1 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 56% and Borussia Dortmund 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 49% | Borussia Dortmund 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.56 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.951 / defence 0.990 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.423 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.363. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 FC Augsburg games / 57 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 31% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Dortmund 2.22. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | Borussia Dortmund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 31% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG FC Augsburg 1.56 / Borussia Dortmund 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.951 / def 0.990 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.423 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Borussia Dortmund xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 31% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (1 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.95) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
31%
3.26
24%
4.18
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.48
1.92
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.26
31%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
15%
6.83
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
4%
22.24
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.92 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg come into this having played 57 games, going 15W 13D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.98 PPG from 57 outings (36W 5D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Augsburg's home form reads 10W 7D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.71 points per game from 28 outings (15W 3D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.42 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 70%.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 15W 13D 29L in their last 57 games (1.02 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 36W 5D 16L in their last 57 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.32 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 61%, Borussia Dortmund at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Augsburg and 75% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Augsburg's games and 75% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Augsburg's matches and 75% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund finished level at 1-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.56 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.92 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.42 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 31% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 45%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 49%, Borussia Dortmund 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.