FC Augsburg 2-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Bayern München at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bayern München — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bayern München's 2.70 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bayern München in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 51% and Bayern München 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 49% | Bayern München 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.50 xG and Bayern München 2.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.009 / defence 1.174 | Bayern München attack 1.861 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.236. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.861 — the away xG of 2.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 FC Augsburg games / 45 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 18% | Draw 20% | Bayern München 62%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 5.56 | Draw 5.00 | Bayern München 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 2.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.20 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Bayern München 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 18% | Draw 20% | Bayern München 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 74% | xG FC Augsburg 1.50 / Bayern München 2.70 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.009 / def 1.174 | Bayern München attack 1.861 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
2.70
Bayern München xG
74%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayern München kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 November 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 18% chance of winning, Bayern München a 62% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Bayern München (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 2.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.4%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
18%
5.44
20%
5.00
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
4.20
2.70
Bayern München xG
5.44
18%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.82
Clean Sheet
7%
14.86
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
1%
80.83
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 2.70 for Bayern München, a combined total of 4.20.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 12W 9D 24L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 33W 7D 5L from 45 games, 2.36 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 15W 3D 4L from 22 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 3.09 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München in 73%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 12W 9D 24L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 33W 7D 5L in their last 45 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.32 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when Bayern München won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, Bayern München have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 54%, Bayern München at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Augsburg and 77% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Augsburg's games and 82% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Augsburg's matches and 77% of Bayern München's.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayern München tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Bayern München 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Bayern München 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.50 xG and Bayern München 2.70 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bayern München landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.17 against Bayern München attack 1.86 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 18% | Draw 20% | Bayern München 62%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 49%, Bayern München 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.