FC Augsburg 1-0 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as FC Augsburg welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to WWK Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, FC Augsburg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
1899 Hoffenheim have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against FC Augsburg's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 57% and 1899 Hoffenheim 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | 1899 Hoffenheim 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.63 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.713 / defence 0.859 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.083 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.906 / away 1.339. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 FC Augsburg games / 54 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
1899 Hoffenheim lead the H2H ledger, but FC Augsburg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 40% | 1899 Hoffenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Augsburg 1.63 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.713 / def 0.859 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.083 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.906 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
1899 Hoffenheim xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 February 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
FC Augsburg 1 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 44% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (3 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 0 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.71x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.44
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.88
1.25
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
5%
19.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.25 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 16W 11D 27L from 54 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 25L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.09 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 10W 6D 10L from 26 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 7W 5D 14L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.61 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 18W 11D 25L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.38 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
5
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 62%, 1899 Hoffenheim 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Augsburg and 73% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1899 Hoffenheim in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Augsburg's games and 58% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Augsburg's matches and 73% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.63 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.25 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.71 / defence 0.86 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.08 / defence 1.20, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.09 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.