FC Augsburg 0-4 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as FC Augsburg welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to WWK Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Augsburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1899 Hoffenheim haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 1.00 PPG versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 53% and 1899 Hoffenheim 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 47% | 1899 Hoffenheim 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.55 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.931 / defence 1.007 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.939 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.283. Data: 34 FC Augsburg games / 34 1899 Hoffenheim games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | 1899 Hoffenheim 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Augsburg 1.55 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.931 / def 1.007 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.939 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.21
1899 Hoffenheim xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
FC Augsburg 0 - 4 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 43% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.93x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.34
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.76
1.21
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.21 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 10W 6D 18L from 34 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. FC Augsburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 13L across 34 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. 1899 Hoffenheim haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.06 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 6W 4D 7L from 17 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 3W 7D 7L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.53 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 71%.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Pre-Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 10W 6D 18L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 11W 10D 13L in their last 34 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.29 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
5
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 53%, 1899 Hoffenheim 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC Augsburg) and 59% (1899 Hoffenheim).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Augsburg's games and 76% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 59% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1899 Hoffenheim run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat FC Augsburg 0-4 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.55 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.21 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. 1899 Hoffenheim outscored their 1.21 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 43% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 27%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 47%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.06 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.