FC Augsburg 2-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 27 as FC Augsburg welcome 1899 Hoffenheim to WWK Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 April 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 1.00 PPG versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 54% and 1899 Hoffenheim 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 46% | 1899 Hoffenheim 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.44 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.853 / defence 1.236 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.793 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.353. 1899 Hoffenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.380 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 FC Augsburg games / 26 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | 1899 Hoffenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Augsburg 1.44 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.853 / def 1.236 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.793 / def 1.380 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
1899 Hoffenheim xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 April 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 38% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.85x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
38%
2.61
29%
3.51
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.77
1.33
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.33 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 8W 5D 13L from 26 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 12L across 26 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.12 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 4W 3D 6L from 13 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.54 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 69%.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 8W 5D 13L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.15 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
5
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 54%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Augsburg) and 69% (1899 Hoffenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Augsburg's games and 77% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of FC Augsburg's matches and 69% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.44 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.33 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.24 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.79 / defence 1.38, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 33%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 46%, 1899 Hoffenheim 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.12 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.