🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Augsburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.

1. FC Köln (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Köln haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, 1. FC Köln in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: FC Augsburg 3W, 1. FC Köln 4W, 3D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with FC Augsburg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 62% and 1. FC Köln 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 62% | 1. FC Köln 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.91 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.963 / defence 1.010 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.927 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.468. Data: 34 FC Augsburg games / 34 1. FC Köln games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 50% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Köln 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | 1. FC Köln 3.57. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights