Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome VfL Bochum to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 March 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Deutsche Bank Park this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Bochum — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfL Bochum have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Eintracht Frankfurt) versus 1.20 (VfL Bochum). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 for VfL Bochum and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with VfL Bochum winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Frankfurt 68% versus VfL Bochum 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | VfL Bochum 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.40 xG and VfL Bochum 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.794 / defence 1.020 | VfL Bochum attack 0.658 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.335. Eintracht Frankfurt's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 25 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 48% | Draw 29% | VfL Bochum 23%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | VfL Bochum 4.35. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | VfL Bochum 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 48% | Draw 29% | VfL Bochum 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.40 / VfL Bochum 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.794 / def 1.020 | VfL Bochum attack 0.658 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.90
VfL Bochum xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 48% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Bochum?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 0W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Bochum in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.79) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Bochum's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.47
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.29
0.90
VfL Bochum xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
6%
17.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.90 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 9W 7D 9L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum's form line: 9W 5D 11L from 25 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.36 PPG, VfL Bochum on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 2W 2D 8L from 12 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.08 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 games (1.36 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or VfL Bochum away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.08 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Frankfurt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting VfL Bochum specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
2
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, VfL Bochum have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Bochum?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
VfL Bochum see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 58%, VfL Bochum 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 42% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt have failed to score in 33% of games; VfL Bochum in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 42% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 42% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out VfL Bochum 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat VfL Bochum 2-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.40 xG and VfL Bochum 0.90 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against VfL Bochum attack 0.66 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 48% | Draw 29% | VfL Bochum 23%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 44%, VfL Bochum 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.36 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.