Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Eintracht Frankfurt (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eintracht Frankfurt face VfB Stuttgart.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Deutsche Bank Park. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Eintracht Frankfurt are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, VfB Stuttgart 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 65% and VfB Stuttgart 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 53% | VfB Stuttgart 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.52 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.202 / defence 0.803 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.894 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.253. Data: 57 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 57 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 71% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 10%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.41 | Draw 5.00 | VfB Stuttgart 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 40% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 71% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 56% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.52 / VfB Stuttgart 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.202 / def 0.803 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.894 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.90
VfB Stuttgart xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 71% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.20) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
71%
1.41
20%
5.12
10%
10.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.42
0.90
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
10.43
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
8%
12.44
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
1%
129.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.90 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 57 games, going 21W 18D 18L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 0.91 PPG from 57 outings (11W 19D 27L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 11W 8D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 0.54 points per game from 28 outings (1W 12D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.21 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 67%.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 21W 18D 18L in their last 57 games (1.42 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 11W 19D 27L in their last 57 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.46 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 57%, VfB Stuttgart 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 54% (VfB Stuttgart).
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 61% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 54% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 24, as Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.52 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.90 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.20 / defence 0.80 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 71% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 10%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 53%, VfB Stuttgart 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.