Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.20 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 91% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 81% and VfB Stuttgart 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 62% | VfB Stuttgart 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.08 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.997 / defence 0.880 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.862 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.292. VfB Stuttgart bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 37 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 14%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | VfB Stuttgart 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | VfB Stuttgart 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.08 / VfB Stuttgart 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.997 / def 0.880 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.862 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.98
VfB Stuttgart xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 60% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.00) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.83
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.06
0.98
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
13%
7.98
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
2%
56.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.98 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 37 games, going 16W 14D 7L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.30 PPG from 37 outings (13W 9D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.68 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 10W 8D 0L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Eintracht Frankfurt are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.70 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 16W 14D 7L in their last 37 games (1.68 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 13W 9D 15L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 2.11 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 83%, VfB Stuttgart at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 67% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 61% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 67% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 4, as Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.08 xG and VfB Stuttgart 0.98 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.00 / defence 0.88 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 14%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, VfB Stuttgart 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.68 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.