Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfB Stuttgart away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.00 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, VfB Stuttgart 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 76% and VfB Stuttgart 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 71% | VfB Stuttgart 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.99 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.889 / defence 1.327 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.058 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 2.006 / away 1.401. Data: 38 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 38 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 39% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 39%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | VfB Stuttgart 2.56. The draw (22%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 22% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | VfB Stuttgart 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 39% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 75% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.99 / VfB Stuttgart 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.889 / def 1.327 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.058 / def 1.114 | league avg home 2.006 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Draw (22%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.97
VfB Stuttgart xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Deutsche Bank Park.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 39% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (10 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 4W | Draws 3 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.89) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.4%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
39%
2.53
22%
4.60
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.95
1.97
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.53
39%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.95
Clean Sheet
14%
7.15
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
6%
18.10
5%
18.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.97 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 13D 13L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.71 PPG from 38 outings (19W 8D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfB Stuttgart's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.03 scored and 1.53 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 12W 13D 13L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.37 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 63%, VfB Stuttgart at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 100% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 84% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 100% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.