Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Union Berlin to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Eintracht Frankfurt) versus 1.80 (Union Berlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 80% and Union Berlin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 56% | Union Berlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.38 xG and Union Berlin 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.809 / defence 1.025 | Union Berlin attack 1.137 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.244. Data: 46 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 46 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 33% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 36%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Union Berlin 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | Union Berlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 33% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.38 / Union Berlin 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.809 / def 1.025 | Union Berlin attack 1.137 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Union Berlin xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 33% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.81) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
33%
3.02
30%
3.28
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.83
1.45
Union Berlin xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
8%
12.88
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.45 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 19W 18D 9L from 46 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 10L across 46 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.63 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 10W 11D 1L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 5W 9D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.50 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 19W 18D 9L in their last 46 games (1.63 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 17W 19D 10L in their last 46 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Union Berlin away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.86 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, Union Berlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 86%, Union Berlin at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 50% (Union Berlin).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 68% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 50% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Frankfurt defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Union Berlin 2-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.38 xG and Union Berlin 1.45 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Union Berlin attack 1.14 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 33% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 36%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Eintracht Frankfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 56%, Union Berlin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.63 PPG, Union Berlin 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.