Eintracht Frankfurt 5-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Union Berlin to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 92% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 84% and Union Berlin 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Union Berlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.36 xG and Union Berlin 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.119 / defence 0.979 | Union Berlin attack 0.675 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.360. Data: 25 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 25 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 46% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 23%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Union Berlin 4.35. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Eintracht Frankfurt 90% | Union Berlin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 46% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.36 / Union Berlin 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.119 / def 0.979 | Union Berlin attack 0.675 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Union Berlin xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 March 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Eintracht Frankfurt 5 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 46% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.12) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
46%
2.19
31%
3.19
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.26
0.90
Union Berlin xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.90 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 11W 11D 3L from 25 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 5L across 25 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.76 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 6W 6D 0L from 12 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 4W 4D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.52 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 84% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 11W 11D 3L in their last 25 games (1.76 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 9W 11D 5L in their last 25 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Union Berlin away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 2.00 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, Union Berlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 92%, Union Berlin at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 42% (Union Berlin).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 92% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 58% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 42% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Union Berlin 5-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.36 xG and Union Berlin 0.90 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Union Berlin attack 0.68 / defence 1.02, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 46% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 23%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 60%, Union Berlin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 84% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 PPG, Union Berlin 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.