Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Eintracht Frankfurt take on RB Leipzig.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deutsche Bank Park plays host to Eintracht Frankfurt versus RB Leipzig in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Deutsche Bank Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
RB Leipzig's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.40 for RB Leipzig — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, RB Leipzig in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
RB Leipzig half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 81% and RB Leipzig 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 58% | RB Leipzig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.11 xG and RB Leipzig 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.808 / defence 1.022 | RB Leipzig attack 0.880 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.265. Data: 43 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 43 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 32% | Draw 35% | RB Leipzig 33%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | RB Leipzig 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | RB Leipzig 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 32% | Draw 35% | RB Leipzig 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.11 / RB Leipzig 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.808 / def 1.022 | RB Leipzig attack 0.880 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.14
RB Leipzig xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 32% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. RB Leipzig (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.81x the league average against RB Leipzig's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (0.88x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
35%
2.85
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.25
1.14
RB Leipzig xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.14 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 17W 17D 9L from 43 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 10L across 43 games — 1.84 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.84 for RB Leipzig. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 10W 10D 1L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 8W 6D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.86 scored and 0.95 conceded. Eintracht Frankfurt's scoring rate against RB Leipzig's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 17W 17D 9L in their last 43 games (1.58 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or RB Leipzig away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.90 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 6-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Leipzig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
4
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, RB Leipzig have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Eintracht Frankfurt, 52% for RB Leipzig — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 48% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 52% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 48% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig finished level at 1-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.11 xG and RB Leipzig 1.14 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against RB Leipzig attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 32% | Draw 35% | RB Leipzig 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 58%, RB Leipzig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.58 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.