Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 May 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record at Deutsche Bank Park: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.70 PPG versus FSV Mainz 05's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 81% and FSV Mainz 05 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 64% | FSV Mainz 05 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.97 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.336 / defence 1.159 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.892 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.276. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 31 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 31 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 51% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 24%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | FSV Mainz 05 4.17. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 51% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.97 / FSV Mainz 05 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.336 / def 1.159 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.892 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.32
FSV Mainz 05 xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 51% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.34x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.11
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.28
1.32
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
3%
29.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.32 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 15W 11D 5L from 31 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 14L across 31 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 9W 6D 0L from 15 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 5W 4D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.10 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 15W 11D 5L in their last 31 games (1.81 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 2.20 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 87%, FSV Mainz 05 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 67% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 32, as Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.97 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.32 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.34 / defence 1.16 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 51% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 24%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 64%, FSV Mainz 05 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.