Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayern München at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München meet at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record at Deutsche Bank Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayern München's overall Bundesliga record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Bayern München are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bayern München in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt 1W, Bayern München 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Bayern München half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 77% and Bayern München 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 56% | Bayern München 84%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.41 xG and Bayern München 2.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.846 / defence 1.100 | Bayern München attack 1.748 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.381. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.748 — the away xG of 2.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 57 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 17% | Draw 20% | Bayern München 63%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 5.88 | Draw 5.00 | Bayern München 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | Bayern München 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 17% | Draw 20% | Bayern München 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 71% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.41 / Bayern München 2.66 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.846 / def 1.100 | Bayern München attack 1.748 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
2.66
Bayern München xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München?
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 17% chance of winning, Bayern München a 63% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 0 | Bayern München 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Bayern München (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayern München's attack (1.75x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 2.66.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.6%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
17%
5.73
20%
5.13
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.6%
Away win
1 – 1
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
4.06
2.66
Bayern München xG
5.73
17%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.48
Clean Sheet
7%
14.24
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
1%
81.65
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.66 for Bayern München, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 24W 19D 14L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 42W 7D 8L from 57 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.79 PPG from 28 outings (13W 11D 4L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 19W 3D 6L from 28 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 3.04 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Bayern München in 72%.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 19D 14L in their last 57 games (1.60 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 42W 7D 8L in their last 57 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.79 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bayern München have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayern München won 1-6 on 5 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayern München — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Draws
6
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, Bayern München have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Bayern München 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Eintracht Frankfurt, 79% for Bayern München — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 82% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 79% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 82% of Bayern München's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.41 xG and Bayern München 2.66 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bayern München landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Bayern München attack 1.75 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 17% | Draw 20% | Bayern München 63%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 56%, Bayern München 84%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayern München's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.