Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayern München at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München meet at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record at Deutsche Bank Park: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Deutsche Bank Park this season.
Bayern München's overall Bundesliga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.60 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 2.50 for Bayern München — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Bayern München in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Bayern München half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 81% and Bayern München 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 62% | Bayern München 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 xG and Bayern München 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.228 / defence 1.010 | Bayern München attack 1.065 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.448. Data: 21 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 21 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 35% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 38%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Bayern München 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayern München if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 90% | Bayern München 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 35% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 / Bayern München 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.228 / def 1.010 | Bayern München attack 1.065 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Bayern München xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 February 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 35% chance of winning, Bayern München a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Bayern München (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.23x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayern München's attack (1.06x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.69
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.06
1.56
Bayern München xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
7%
13.48
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.56 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 10W 9D 2L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 15W 4D 2L from 21 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (5W 5D 0L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.90 scored and 1.38 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games; Bayern München in 76%.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 10W 9D 2L in their last 21 games (1.86 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 15W 4D 2L in their last 21 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 2.00 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bayern München have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayern München won 1-6 on 5 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayern München — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Draws
6
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, Bayern München have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Bayern München 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 90% for Eintracht Frankfurt, 70% for Bayern München — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 70% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 70% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 70% of Bayern München's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayern München tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Frankfurt defy the odds to beat Bayern München 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Bayern München 2-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 xG and Bayern München 1.56 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.23 / defence 1.01 against Bayern München attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 35% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 38%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Eintracht Frankfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, Bayern München 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.86. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Frankfurt winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.