Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host Arminia Bielefeld at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 January 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Arminia Bielefeld — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0 for Arminia Bielefeld and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 81% and Arminia Bielefeld 42% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 58% | Arminia Bielefeld 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.091 / defence 1.026 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.842 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.335. Data: 53 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 53 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 43% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 27%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Arminia Bielefeld 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | Arminia Bielefeld 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 43% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.091 / def 1.026 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.842 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Arminia Bielefeld xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 - 2 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 43% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 2 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.09x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.28
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.65
1.15
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.15 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 23W 19D 11L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arminia Bielefeld's form line: 12W 17D 24L from 53 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Eintracht Frankfurt are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arminia Bielefeld.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.92 PPG from 26 outings (13W 11D 2L).
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 5W 9D 12L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.83 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 19D 11L in their last 53 games (1.66 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 12W 17D 24L in their last 53 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.92 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jan 2021, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Arminia Bielefeld specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Draws
1
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 85%, Arminia Bielefeld 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 38% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 42% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 38% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.49 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.15 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Arminia Bielefeld outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.84 / defence 0.81, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 43% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 27%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Arminia Bielefeld win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 58%, Arminia Bielefeld 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.