Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig meet at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Leipzig have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Leipzig's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. RB Leipzig are 0.80 PPG clear of Borussia Mönchengladbach in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, RB Leipzig in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Borussia Mönchengladbach lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Borussia Mönchengladbach half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
RB Leipzig half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% and RB Leipzig 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% | RB Leipzig 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.09 xG and RB Leipzig 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.953 / defence 1.214 | RB Leipzig attack 1.430 / defence 0.701. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.393. RB Leipzig's defence strength of 0.701 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. RB Leipzig have an above-average attack strength of 1.430 — the away xG of 2.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 65 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 14% | Draw 20% | RB Leipzig 65%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 7.14 | Draw 5.00 | RB Leipzig 1.54. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.09 / 2.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | RB Leipzig 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Monday 2 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 14% | Draw 20% | RB Leipzig 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 62% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.09 / RB Leipzig 2.42 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.953 / def 1.214 | RB Leipzig attack 1.430 / def 0.701 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
2.42
RB Leipzig xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 2 May 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 14% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (0.95) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (1.43x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 2.42.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
14%
6.96
20%
4.95
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.51
2.42
RB Leipzig xG
6.96
14%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
9%
11.21
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
1%
78.08
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.42 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 23W 18D 24L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
RB Leipzig's form line: 35W 14D 16L from 65 games, 1.83 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (14W 8D 10L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 14W 8D 10L from 32 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.94 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 23W 18D 24L in their last 65 games (1.34 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 35W 14D 16L in their last 65 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or RB Leipzig away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.56 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 4-1 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Leipzig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2
Draws
5
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, RB Leipzig have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when RB Leipzig 1-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 72%, RB Leipzig 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 47% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 56% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 47% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over RB Leipzig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat RB Leipzig 3-1 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.09 xG and RB Leipzig 2.42 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RB Leipzig landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against RB Leipzig attack 1.43 / defence 0.70, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 14% | Draw 20% | RB Leipzig 65%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Mönchengladbach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%, RB Leipzig 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.