Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC meet at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hertha BSC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1 for Hertha BSC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% and Hertha BSC 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Hertha BSC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.22 xG and Hertha BSC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.032 / defence 1.294 | Hertha BSC attack 0.703 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.352. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 59 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 19%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Hertha BSC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Hertha BSC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.22 / Hertha BSC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.032 / def 1.294 | Hertha BSC attack 0.703 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Hertha BSC xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 59% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 2 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.70x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.57
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.45
1.23
Hertha BSC xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
11%
9.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
2%
47.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.23 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 20W 16D 23L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 14W 16D 29L from 59 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 0.98 for Hertha BSC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.59 PPG from 29 outings (13W 7D 9L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 5W 8D 16L from 29 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.14 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 16D 23L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 14W 16D 29L in their last 59 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Hertha BSC away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.59 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hertha BSC won 4-1 on 12 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Hertha BSC 4-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 72%, Hertha BSC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 59% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 55% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 59% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Hertha BSC 2-0 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.22 xG and Hertha BSC 1.23 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.03 / defence 1.29 against Hertha BSC attack 0.70 / defence 1.25, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 59% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 19%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, Hertha BSC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.29 PPG, Hertha BSC 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.