Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach host Bayer Leverkusen at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–4 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% and Bayer Leverkusen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% | Bayer Leverkusen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.77 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.999 / defence 1.253 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.262 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.331. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 2.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 52 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.22. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.77 / Bayer Leverkusen 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.999 / def 1.253 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.262 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Bayer Leverkusen xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 32% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (1.00) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
32%
3.16
24%
4.25
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.87
2.10
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.16
32%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
12%
8.21
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
4%
25.91
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.10 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 14D 19L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.56 PPG from 52 outings (22W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.37 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 12W 6D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.83 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 19W 14D 19L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 22W 15D 15L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.68 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Bayer Leverkusen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%, Bayer Leverkusen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 56% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 56% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 56% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.77 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.10 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.26 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 45%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 67%, Bayer Leverkusen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.37 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.