Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-3 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome 1. FC Köln to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
1. FC Köln away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Borussia Mönchengladbach) versus 1.50 (1. FC Köln). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 2 for 1. FC Köln and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% and 1. FC Köln 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 65% | 1. FC Köln 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.50 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.985 / defence 1.172 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.915 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.299. Data: 63 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 63 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 34%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Köln 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | 1. FC Köln 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.50 / 1. FC Köln 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.985 / def 1.172 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.915 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.39
1. FC Köln xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 3 1. FC Köln.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 39% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 2W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
39%
2.58
27%
3.69
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.89
1.39
1. FC Köln xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.39 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 17D 23L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.25 PPG from 63 outings (20W 19D 24L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.37 PPG, 1. FC Köln on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 14W 8D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (9W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.24 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
1. FC Köln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 23W 17D 23L in their last 63 games (1.37 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 20W 19D 24L in their last 63 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.61 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when 1. FC Köln won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 71%, 1. FC Köln at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 52% (1. FC Köln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 61% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 52% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-3 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.50 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.39 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 39% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 34%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 65%, 1. FC Köln 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.37 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.