Borussia Dortmund 3-0 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 84% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host VfL Bochum at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's home record at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Bochum — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Dortmund register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VfL Bochum in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Borussia Dortmund, 1 for VfL Bochum and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 3–4 with VfL Bochum winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 67% versus VfL Bochum 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 72% | VfL Bochum 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 3.33 xG and VfL Bochum 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.211 / defence 0.849 | VfL Bochum attack 0.719 / defence 1.526. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.331. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.526 — this is suppressing Borussia Dortmund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Borussia Dortmund games / 46 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 84% | Draw 10% | VfL Bochum 5%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.19 | Draw 10.00 | VfL Bochum 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (84%) — a 79pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 60% | VfL Bochum 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 84% | Draw 10% | VfL Bochum 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 54% | xG Borussia Dortmund 3.33 / VfL Bochum 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.211 / def 0.849 | VfL Bochum attack 0.719 / def 1.526 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.81
VfL Bochum xG
54%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum?
Borussia Dortmund 3 - 0 VfL Bochum.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 84% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 5% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfL Bochum?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 0W | Draws 1 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfL Bochum in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. VfL Bochum (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against VfL Bochum's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.33. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Bochum's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 4-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
84%
1.18
10%
9.81
5%
18.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
4 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.33
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
4.14
0.81
VfL Bochum xG
1.18
84%
Home win
9.81
10%
Draw
18.59
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
4%
27.85
Win to Nil
37%
2.67
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 3.33 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.81 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 46 games, going 29W 4D 13L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Bochum sit at 1.07 PPG from 46 outings (14W 7D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 17W 1D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Bochum have taken 0.61 points per game from 23 outings (4W 2D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.07 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 29W 4D 13L in their last 46 games (1.98 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 14W 7D 25L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or VfL Bochum away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.26 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting VfL Bochum specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Borussia Dortmund
3
Draws
2
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 3, VfL Bochum have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when VfL Bochum 2-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and VfL Bochum?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 65%, VfL Bochum 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Borussia Dortmund and 65% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; VfL Bochum in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 52% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 65% of VfL Bochum's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 3-0 hammering of VfL Bochum.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfL Bochum 3-0 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 3.33 xG and VfL Bochum 0.81 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. VfL Bochum landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against VfL Bochum attack 0.72 / defence 1.53, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 84% | Draw 10% | VfL Bochum 5%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 84%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 72%, VfL Bochum 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.