Borussia Dortmund 5-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host VfB Stuttgart at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Dortmund register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 2, VfB Stuttgart 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 68% and VfB Stuttgart 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 70% | VfB Stuttgart 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.68 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.009 / defence 0.911 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.997 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.363. Data: 44 Borussia Dortmund games / 44 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 47% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 28%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | VfB Stuttgart 3.57. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 60% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 47% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.68 / VfB Stuttgart 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.009 / def 0.911 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.997 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.24
VfB Stuttgart xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Dortmund 5 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 47% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 2W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.01) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
47%
2.12
25%
3.94
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.92
1.24
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
5%
19.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.24 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 27W 4D 13L from 44 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 8W 17D 19L across 44 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfB Stuttgart heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 15W 1D 5L from 21 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 1W 11D 9L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.23 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 27W 4D 13L in their last 44 games (1.93 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 8W 17D 19L in their last 44 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.19 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 67%, VfB Stuttgart 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Borussia Dortmund) and 43% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; VfB Stuttgart in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 57% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 43% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 5-0 hammering of VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfB Stuttgart 5-0 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.68 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.24 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 47% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 28%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 70%, VfB Stuttgart 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.