Borussia Dortmund 2-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host VfB Stuttgart at Signal-Iduna-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Signal-Iduna-Park this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at Signal-Iduna-Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Dortmund register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 91% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 69% and VfB Stuttgart 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 76% | VfB Stuttgart 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.59 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.394 / defence 1.015 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.853 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.217. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — their λ of 2.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Borussia Dortmund games / 45 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 69% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 12%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | VfB Stuttgart 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 80% | VfB Stuttgart 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 69% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 62% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.59 / VfB Stuttgart 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.394 / def 1.015 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.853 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.05
VfB Stuttgart xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 69% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.39) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 1-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
69%
1.45
20%
5.10
12%
8.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.65
1.05
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
8.59
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
7%
13.34
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
1%
114.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.05 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 28W 4D 13L from 45 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 18L across 45 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfB Stuttgart heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 16W 2D 4L from 22 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 7W 6D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.58 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 69%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 28W 4D 13L in their last 45 games (1.96 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 14W 13D 18L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.27 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Dortmund at 68%, VfB Stuttgart at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Borussia Dortmund and 59% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; VfB Stuttgart in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 64% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 59% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out VfB Stuttgart 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.59 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.05 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.39 / defence 1.01 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 69% | Draw 20% | VfB Stuttgart 12%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 76%, VfB Stuttgart 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.