Borussia Dortmund 1-5 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host VfB Stuttgart at Signal-Iduna-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 2L across 5 games at Signal-Iduna-Park this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal-Iduna-Park.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 3W 2D 0L from 5 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 40% and VfB Stuttgart 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 60% | VfB Stuttgart 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.71 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.145 / defence 1.040 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.023 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.618. Data: 10 Borussia Dortmund games / 10 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 36% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 36%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | VfB Stuttgart 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 40% | VfB Stuttgart 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 36% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 70% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.71 / VfB Stuttgart 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.145 / def 1.040 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.023 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.618 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.72
VfB Stuttgart xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 December 2020 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Dortmund 1 - 5 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 36% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.15) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.54
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.43
1.72
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
18%
5.59
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
6%
15.69
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.72 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 6W 1D 3L from 10 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 2L across 10 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfB Stuttgart heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 3W 2D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.40 PPG overall record — VfB Stuttgart travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.90 scored and 1.60 conceded. VfB Stuttgart's attacking output running into Borussia Dortmund's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 90%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 1.80 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 40%, VfB Stuttgart 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Borussia Dortmund and 60% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 80% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 60% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Borussia Dortmund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund 1-5 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.71 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.72 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.72 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 36% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 36%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 60%, VfB Stuttgart 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with VfB Stuttgart winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.