Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 91% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Signal-Iduna-Park to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 December 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Signal-Iduna-Park this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at Signal-Iduna-Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home this season: 0W 0D 8L from 8 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 3.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Borussia Dortmund have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 87% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 4.44 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.341 / defence 0.990 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.666 / defence 1.844. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.365. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — their λ of 4.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.844 — this is suppressing Borussia Dortmund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Borussia Dortmund games / 15 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 91% | Draw 6% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.10 | Draw 16.67 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33.33. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (91%) — a 88pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 90% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 5.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 90% — a total xG of 5.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 91% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 5.34 combined xG gives a 90% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 90% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 91% | Draw 6% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 90% | BTTS 59% | xG Borussia Dortmund 4.44 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.341 / def 0.990 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.666 / def 1.844 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (91%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
4.44
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
59%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
78%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Borussia Dortmund 3 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 91% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 3% chance, and a 6% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 90%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.34) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.84), the model arrives at 4.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 4-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (7.0%), 4-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
91%
1.09
6%
16.56
3%
38.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
4 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
7.0%
Home win
4 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
4.44
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
5.34
0.90
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.09
91%
Home win
16.56
6%
Draw
38.61
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
97%
Over 1.5
1.03
3%
Under 1.5
33.33
90%
Over 2.5
1.11
10%
Under 2.5
10.00
78%
Over 3.5
1.28
22%
Under 3.5
4.55
62%
Over 4.5
1.61
38%
Under 4.5
2.63
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
1%
84.86
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 4-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 4.44 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.90 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 5.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 91%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 10W 1D 4L from 15 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 13L across 15 games — 0.27 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 1.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 7W 0D 1L from 8 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Borussia Dortmund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 0W 0D 8L across 8 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.87 scored and 3.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 87% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 10W 1D 4L in their last 15 games (2.07 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 1D 13L in their last 15 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.62 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Borussia Dortmund
0
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Dortmund at 88%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Borussia Dortmund and 100% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 75% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 4.44 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.90 xG, a combined 5.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.34 / defence 0.99 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.67 / defence 1.84, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 91% | Draw 6% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 91%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 90%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 97% and landed. Over 3.5 was 78% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 80%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.27. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 3 against a 3.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.