Borussia Dortmund 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim make the trip to Signal-Iduna-Park to face Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Dortmund have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 5W 1D 3L at Signal-Iduna-Park — 1.78 PPG. They are averaging 2.22 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1899 Hoffenheim (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Borussia Dortmund against 1.00 for 1899 Hoffenheim. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
1899 Hoffenheim half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 65% and 1899 Hoffenheim 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 70% | 1899 Hoffenheim 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.10 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.132 / defence 1.184 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.808 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.447. 1899 Hoffenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing Borussia Dortmund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Borussia Dortmund games / 20 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 54% | Draw 22% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | 1899 Hoffenheim 4.00. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 56% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 54% | Draw 22% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.10 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.132 / def 1.184 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.808 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.39
1899 Hoffenheim xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 54% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.13x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1899 Hoffenheim's attack (0.81x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
54%
1.87
22%
4.64
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.48
1.39
1899 Hoffenheim xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
3%
32.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.39 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 10W 2D 8L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 6W 4D 10L from 20 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1899 Hoffenheim.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.50 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 70%.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 10W 2D 8L in their last 20 games (1.60 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 1.78 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or 1899 Hoffenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Borussia Dortmund, 78% for 1899 Hoffenheim — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Borussia Dortmund and 78% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 78% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 78% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim finished level at 2-2 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.10 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.39 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.13 / defence 1.18 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.81 / defence 1.50, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 54% | Draw 22% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 70%, 1899 Hoffenheim 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.