Bayern München 6-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bayern München at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayern München vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Bayern München welcome Werder Bremen to Allianz Arena. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayern München stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München's home record at Allianz Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Arena. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Bayern München are significantly better at Allianz Arena than their overall form suggests.
Werder Bremen — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Bayern München) versus 1.60 (Werder Bremen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 1, Werder Bremen 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2021, ended 3–1 with Bayern München winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bayern München in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 76% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayern München 64% and Werder Bremen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayern München 77% | Werder Bremen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 2.66 xG and Werder Bremen 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.581 / defence 0.827 | Werder Bremen attack 1.004 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.327. Bayern München carry an above-average attack strength of 1.581 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Bayern München games / 13 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayern München 70% | Draw 17% | Werder Bremen 13%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Werder Bremen 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.66 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayern München 50% | Werder Bremen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Allianz Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 70% | Draw 17% | Werder Bremen 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 62% | xG Bayern München 2.66 / Werder Bremen 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.581 / def 0.827 | Werder Bremen attack 1.004 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Werder Bremen xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayern München vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Bayern München vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Allianz Arena.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Bayern München 6 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Bayern München vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Arena.
What competition is Bayern München vs Werder Bremen part of?
Bayern München vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 70% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bayern München and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Bayern München vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Werder Bremen?
Record (2 meetings): Bayern München 1W | Draws 1 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are Bayern München and Werder Bremen in?
Bayern München (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayern München's attack at 1.58x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 2.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Bayern München's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.2%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
70%
1.42
17%
6.03
13%
7.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Bayern München xG
Total xG
3.76
1.10
Werder Bremen xG
1.42
70%
Home win
6.03
17%
Draw
7.58
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
7%
14.27
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
1%
108.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Bayern München and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.10 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayern München come into this having played 47 games, going 32W 9D 6L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 1.79 PPG from 47 outings (24W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayern München's home form reads 17W 4D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Werder Bremen have taken 1.91 points per game from 23 outings (13W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayern München are averaging 2.94 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.87 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayern München and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 32W 9D 6L in their last 47 games (2.23 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 24W 12D 11L in their last 47 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or Werder Bremen away?
Bayern München's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.39 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Bayern München or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayern München and Werder Bremen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayern München have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Bayern München won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayern München's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bayern München
1
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayern München have won 8, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Werder Bremen 0-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and Werder Bremen?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayern München 56%, Werder Bremen 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Bayern München and 78% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayern München play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Bayern München's games and 70% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayern München vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Bayern München's matches and 78% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Bayern München and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Bayern München have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Werder Bremen 6-1 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.66 xG and Werder Bremen 1.10 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Bayern München beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.58 / defence 0.83 against Werder Bremen attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 70% | Draw 17% | Werder Bremen 13%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 77%, Werder Bremen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.96 average — above their attacking norm. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.