Bayern München 1-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayern München vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Union Berlin travel to Allianz Arena to take on Bayern München. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Bayern München have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München's home record at Allianz Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Bayern München in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayern München 74% and Union Berlin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayern München 82% | Union Berlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 2.88 xG and Union Berlin 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.880 / defence 1.189 | Union Berlin attack 0.768 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.321. Bayern München carry an above-average attack strength of 1.880 — their λ of 2.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union Berlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Bayern München's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Bayern München games / 27 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayern München 71% | Draw 16% | Union Berlin 13%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.41 | Draw 6.25 | Union Berlin 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.88 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.09 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayern München 90% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Allianz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 71% | Draw 16% | Union Berlin 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 67% | xG Bayern München 2.88 / Union Berlin 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.880 / def 1.189 | Union Berlin attack 0.768 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.88
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Union Berlin xG
67%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayern München vs Union Berlin kick off?
Bayern München vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at Allianz Arena.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Bayern München 1 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is Bayern München vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Arena.
What competition is Bayern München vs Union Berlin part of?
Bayern München vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 71% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Bayern München and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bayern München vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayern München and Union Berlin in?
Bayern München (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayern München's attack at 1.88x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Bayern München's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
71%
1.40
16%
6.29
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.88
Bayern München xG
Total xG
4.09
1.21
Union Berlin xG
1.40
71%
Home win
6.29
16%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
6%
17.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
1%
140.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Bayern München and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.88 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.21 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayern München come into this having played 27 games, going 20W 4D 3L for 2.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.44 PPG from 27 outings (9W 12D 6L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayern München's home form reads 10W 3D 0L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayern München are averaging 2.93 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.52 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayern München and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 20W 4D 3L in their last 27 games (2.37 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 9W 12D 6L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or Union Berlin away?
Bayern München's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.54 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayern München and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Bayern München won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayern München's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bayern München
3
Draws
0
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayern München have won 7, Union Berlin have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and Union Berlin?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bayern München at 77%, Union Berlin at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 92% for Bayern München and 46% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 77% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayern München play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Bayern München's games and 62% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayern München vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of Bayern München's matches and 46% of Union Berlin's.
Do Bayern München and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Bayern München have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayern München and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Bayern München and Union Berlin drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.88 xG and Union Berlin 1.21 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayern München fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.88 / defence 1.19 against Union Berlin attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 71% | Draw 16% | Union Berlin 13%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 82%, Union Berlin 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.