Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.29 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Bayer Leverkusen. A 1.50 PPG lead over Werder Bremen (2.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bayer Leverkusen register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, Werder Bremen in 71%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 64% and Werder Bremen 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 64% | Werder Bremen 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.72 xG and Werder Bremen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.202 / defence 1.055 | Werder Bremen attack 0.818 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.532. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Bayer Leverkusen games / 14 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 44% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 27%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Werder Bremen 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 83% | Werder Bremen 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 44% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.72 / Werder Bremen 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.202 / def 1.055 | Werder Bremen attack 0.818 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Werder Bremen xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 January 2021 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 44% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.20) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.82x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.46
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.04
1.32
Werder Bremen xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
5%
20.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.32 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 14 games, going 8W 4D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Werder Bremen have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.14 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 71%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 4D 2L in their last 14 games (2.00 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Werder Bremen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.83 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bayer Leverkusen
5
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Bayer Leverkusen, 67% for Werder Bremen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 17% (Werder Bremen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 67% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent games and 17% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 15, as Bayer Leverkusen and Werder Bremen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.72 xG and Werder Bremen 1.32 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.20 / defence 1.05 against Werder Bremen attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 44% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 27%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 64%, Werder Bremen 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.