Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to BayArena to take on Bayer Leverkusen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at BayArena this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bayer Leverkusen 1.70 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 60% versus VfL Wolfsburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.95 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.137 / defence 1.273 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.047 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.227. Data: 43 Bayer Leverkusen games / 43 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 43% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 31%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | VfL Wolfsburg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 43% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 71% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.95 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.137 / def 1.273 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.047 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.64
VfL Wolfsburg xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen 0 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 43% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.14) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.83
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.58
1.64
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
4%
22.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.64 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 12D 12L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.72 PPG from 43 outings (21W 11D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bayer Leverkusen on 1.60 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.63 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 19W 12D 12L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 21W 11D 11L in their last 43 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.67 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen won 6-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
3
Draws
1
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 6-3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bayer Leverkusen at 76%, VfL Wolfsburg at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Bayer Leverkusen and 52% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 62% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 52% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.95 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.64 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.14 / defence 1.27 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 43% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 31%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 60%, VfL Wolfsburg 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.60 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.