Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen host RB Leipzig at BayArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bayer Leverkusen's home record at BayArena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RB Leipzig — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Leipzig's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bayer Leverkusen 2.00 PPG, RB Leipzig 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bayer Leverkusen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Leipzig in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 0 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 64% versus RB Leipzig 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 62% | RB Leipzig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.62 xG and RB Leipzig 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.282 / defence 1.080 | RB Leipzig attack 1.611 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.301. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. RB Leipzig's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. RB Leipzig have an above-average attack strength of 1.611 — the away xG of 2.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Bayer Leverkusen games / 63 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 27% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 52%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | RB Leipzig 1.92. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.88 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 27% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.62 / RB Leipzig 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.282 / def 1.080 | RB Leipzig attack 1.611 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
2.26
RB Leipzig xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Bayer Leverkusen 0 - 1 RB Leipzig.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 27% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?
Record (1 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 1W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 0W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
27%
3.77
22%
4.55
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.88
2.26
RB Leipzig xG
3.77
27%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
10%
9.61
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
3%
36.24
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 2.26 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 63 games, going 29W 17D 17L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, RB Leipzig sit at 1.84 PPG from 63 outings (34W 14D 15L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bayer Leverkusen on 1.65 PPG, RB Leipzig on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 16W 7D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Leipzig have taken 1.52 points per game from 31 outings (13W 8D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.97 scored and 1.00 conceded. Bayer Leverkusen's scoring rate against RB Leipzig's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 29W 17D 17L in their last 63 games (1.65 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 34W 14D 15L in their last 63 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or RB Leipzig away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.77 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
1
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, RB Leipzig have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 71%, RB Leipzig 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 48% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 58% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 48% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out Bayer Leverkusen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.62 xG and RB Leipzig 2.26 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.28 / defence 1.08 against RB Leipzig attack 1.61 / defence 0.79, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 27% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 52%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 62%, RB Leipzig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.65 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.