Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SchücoArena plays host to Arminia Bielefeld versus Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Wednesday 10 March 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arminia Bielefeld have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at SchücoArena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Werder Bremen have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.30 for Werder Bremen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 0W, Werder Bremen 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2020, ended 0–1 with Werder Bremen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Arminia Bielefeld half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 39% versus Werder Bremen 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 52% | Werder Bremen 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.03 xG and Werder Bremen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.678 / defence 1.219 | Werder Bremen attack 0.775 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.394. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Arminia Bielefeld games / 23 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 27% | Draw 32% | Werder Bremen 41%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Werder Bremen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 30% | Werder Bremen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Mar 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 27% | Draw 32% | Werder Bremen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.03 / Werder Bremen 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.678 / def 1.219 | Werder Bremen attack 0.775 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Werder Bremen xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 10 March 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 27% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Werder Bremen?
Record (1 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Werder Bremen in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.78x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
27%
3.66
32%
3.16
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.35
1.32
Werder Bremen xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
7%
13.65
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.32 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 5W 4D 14L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen's form line: 6W 9D 8L from 23 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.17 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (4W 1D 7L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 5D 4L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.17 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 5W 4D 14L in their last 23 games (0.83 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 6W 9D 8L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.08 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
0
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Werder Bremen?
From 2 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2021, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 33%, Werder Bremen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 33% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 67% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 33% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.03 xG and Werder Bremen 1.32 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against Werder Bremen attack 0.78 / defence 1.29, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 27% | Draw 32% | Werder Bremen 41%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 52%, Werder Bremen 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 0.83 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.