Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to SchücoArena to face Arminia Bielefeld in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Wednesday 20 January 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 3W 0D 5L at SchücoArena — 1.12 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 1L across 8 road games this term (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.62 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.12 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 38% versus VfB Stuttgart 81%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 38% | VfB Stuttgart 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 0.87 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.658 / defence 1.033 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.248 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.483. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Arminia Bielefeld games / 16 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 15% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 60%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | VfB Stuttgart 1.67. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 38% | VfB Stuttgart 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Jan 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 15% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 0.87 / VfB Stuttgart 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.658 / def 1.033 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.248 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.91
VfB Stuttgart xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 20 January 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart?
Arminia Bielefeld 3 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 15% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 60% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.66x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.25x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
15%
6.89
26%
3.89
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.78
1.91
VfB Stuttgart xG
6.89
15%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
15%
6.76
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
2%
46.56
25%
4.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.91 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 2D 10L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (5W 7D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 3W 0D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 2.12 points per game from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.38 PPG overall record — VfB Stuttgart travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 81%.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 4W 2D 10L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.12 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 2.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arminia Bielefeld won 3-0 on 20 Jan 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Arminia Bielefeld
1
Draws
0
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 38%, VfB Stuttgart 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 62% (VfB Stuttgart).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 75% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 62% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arminia Bielefeld run riot with a 3-0 hammering of VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat VfB Stuttgart 3-0 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 0.87 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.91 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.66 / defence 1.03 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.25 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 15% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 60%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Arminia Bielefeld win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 38%, VfB Stuttgart 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.