Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Hertha BSC travel to SchücoArena to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at SchücoArena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Arminia Bielefeld are significantly better at SchücoArena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hertha BSC are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, Hertha BSC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Hertha BSC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hertha BSC trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 38% versus Hertha BSC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 40% | Hertha BSC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.21 xG and Hertha BSC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.690 / defence 1.037 | Hertha BSC attack 0.699 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.325. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Arminia Bielefeld games / 65 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 40% | Draw 32% | Hertha BSC 28%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Hertha BSC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arminia Bielefeld are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hertha BSC (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | Hertha BSC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 40% | Draw 32% | Hertha BSC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.21 / Hertha BSC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.690 / def 1.037 | Hertha BSC attack 0.699 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hertha BSC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 40% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
Record (3 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 1W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
40%
2.48
32%
3.12
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.17
0.96
Hertha BSC xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 0.96 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 65 games, going 14W 19D 32L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.03 PPG from 65 outings (17W 16D 32L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arminia Bielefeld on 0.94 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 8W 10D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.81 points per game from 32 outings (6W 8D 18L).
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.15 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 14W 19D 32L in their last 65 games (0.94 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 17W 16D 32L in their last 65 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Hertha BSC away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.06 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 41%, Hertha BSC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 56% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 38% of games; Hertha BSC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 53% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 56% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC finished level at 1-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.21 xG and Hertha BSC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.69 / defence 1.04 against Hertha BSC attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 40% | Draw 32% | Hertha BSC 28%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 40%, Hertha BSC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 0.94 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.