Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Augsburg make the trip to SchücoArena to face Arminia Bielefeld in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Wednesday 16 December 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's home record at SchücoArena: 2W 0D 3L from 5 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Arminia Bielefeld are significantly better at SchücoArena than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Augsburg in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 54% versus FC Augsburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 54% | FC Augsburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.28 xG and FC Augsburg 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.840 / defence 1.219 | FC Augsburg attack 0.754 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.611. Data: 11 Arminia Bielefeld games / 11 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 29% | Draw 33% | FC Augsburg 38%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | FC Augsburg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | FC Augsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Dec 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 29% | Draw 33% | FC Augsburg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.28 / FC Augsburg 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.840 / def 1.219 | FC Augsburg attack 0.754 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.611 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.48
FC Augsburg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 16 December 2020 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 29% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.84x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.75x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
29%
3.44
33%
3.07
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.76
1.48
FC Augsburg xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.48 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arminia Bielefeld's recent record stands at 2W 1D 8L from 11 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 4L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Augsburg by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arminia Bielefeld have managed 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.64 PPG overall — Arminia Bielefeld are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.27 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 2W 1D 8L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or FC Augsburg away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Arminia Bielefeld, 80% for FC Augsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Arminia Bielefeld and 60% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 80% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 60% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out Arminia Bielefeld 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.28 xG and FC Augsburg 1.48 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against FC Augsburg attack 0.75 / defence 1.18, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 29% | Draw 33% | FC Augsburg 38%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 54%, FC Augsburg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.