1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PreZero Arena plays host to 1899 Hoffenheim versus VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1899 Hoffenheim have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's home record at PreZero Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, VfL Wolfsburg are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: 1899 Hoffenheim 2W, VfL Wolfsburg 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1899 Hoffenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1899 Hoffenheim 58% versus VfL Wolfsburg 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 65% | VfL Wolfsburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.10 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.780 / defence 1.084 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.980 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.894 / away 1.325. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfL Wolfsburg's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 1899 Hoffenheim games / 48 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 29% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 44%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 29% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.10 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.780 / def 1.084 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.980 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.894 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.41
VfL Wolfsburg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 29% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (2 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 2W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 0W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 0.78x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.98x) against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
29%
3.40
27%
3.76
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.51
1.41
VfL Wolfsburg xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
13.91
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.41 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1899 Hoffenheim come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 10D 20L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.29 PPG from 48 outings (17W 11D 20L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.29 for VfL Wolfsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1899 Hoffenheim's home form reads 11W 5D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1899 Hoffenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.35 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 17W 11D 20L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.58 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.08 PPG.
Have 1899 Hoffenheim or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1899 Hoffenheim have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1899 Hoffenheim
3
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 62%, VfL Wolfsburg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (1899 Hoffenheim) and 46% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent matches and 38% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent games and 46% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfL Wolfsburg edge out 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.10 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.41 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.98 / defence 0.74, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 29% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 44%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 65%, VfL Wolfsburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.33 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.