1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PreZero Arena plays host to 1899 Hoffenheim versus VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 25 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1899 Hoffenheim have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1899 Hoffenheim's home record at PreZero Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 2.00 for VfL Wolfsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, VfL Wolfsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
1899 Hoffenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1899 Hoffenheim 67% versus VfL Wolfsburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 67% | VfL Wolfsburg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.910 / defence 1.139 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.168 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.294. Data: 39 1899 Hoffenheim games / 39 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 25% | Draw 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 45%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.22. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 25% | Draw 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.910 / def 1.139 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.168 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.72
VfL Wolfsburg xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 25% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 0.91x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (1.17x) against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
25%
4.02
30%
3.30
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.99
1.72
VfL Wolfsburg xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
18%
5.59
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
4%
22.48
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.72 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1899 Hoffenheim come into this having played 39 games, going 12W 12D 15L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.90 PPG from 39 outings (21W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1899 Hoffenheim's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.74 points per game from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.74 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 21W 11D 7L in their last 39 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.47 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.74 PPG.
Have 1899 Hoffenheim or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1899 Hoffenheim have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1899 Hoffenheim
3
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 63%, VfL Wolfsburg 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 53% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 32%; 1899 Hoffenheim have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 63% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 53% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.17 / defence 0.81, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 25% | Draw 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 45%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a 1899 Hoffenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 67%, VfL Wolfsburg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.