1899 Hoffenheim 2-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hertha BSC make the trip to PreZero Arena to face 1899 Hoffenheim in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 29 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
1899 Hoffenheim (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PreZero Arena, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — 1899 Hoffenheim are significantly better at PreZero Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hertha BSC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.20 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1899 Hoffenheim register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Hertha BSC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1899 Hoffenheim lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2021, ended 2–1 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1899 Hoffenheim — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 65% and Hertha BSC 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 70% | Hertha BSC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.81 xG and Hertha BSC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.277 / defence 0.983 | Hertha BSC attack 1.013 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.241. 1899 Hoffenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 2.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing 1899 Hoffenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 1899 Hoffenheim games / 43 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 69% | Draw 19% | Hertha BSC 13%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Hertha BSC 7.69. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.81 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1899 Hoffenheim are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.05 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 70% | Hertha BSC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 69% | Draw 19% | Hertha BSC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 68% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.81 / Hertha BSC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.277 / def 0.983 | Hertha BSC attack 1.013 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Hertha BSC xG
68%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 29 October 2021 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC?
1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 69% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC?
Record (2 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 2W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1899 Hoffenheim's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.81. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.01x) against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
69%
1.46
19%
5.37
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
4.05
1.24
Hertha BSC xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
6%
16.63
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
1%
130.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.24 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1899 Hoffenheim come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 12D 17L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.09 PPG from 43 outings (12W 11D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.09 for Hertha BSC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1899 Hoffenheim's home form reads 10W 4D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1899 Hoffenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.21 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 12W 11D 20L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Hertha BSC away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.62 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
1899 Hoffenheim
1
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 62%, Hertha BSC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 57% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 62% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 57% of Hertha BSC's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Hertha BSC 2-0 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.81 xG and Hertha BSC 1.24 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Hertha BSC attack 1.01 / defence 1.28, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 69% | Draw 19% | Hertha BSC 13%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 70%, Hertha BSC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.