1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees FC Augsburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 January 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 7W 2D 1L at PreZero Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
1899 Hoffenheim carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 0 for FC Augsburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 4–0 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1899 Hoffenheim 65% versus FC Augsburg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 67% | FC Augsburg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.63 xG and FC Augsburg 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.157 / defence 0.881 | FC Augsburg attack 0.722 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.313. Data: 51 1899 Hoffenheim games / 51 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 54% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 17%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | FC Augsburg 5.88. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | FC Augsburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 54% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.63 / FC Augsburg 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.157 / def 0.881 | FC Augsburg attack 0.722 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.84
FC Augsburg xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 54% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
Record (1 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.16) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.54
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.47
0.84
FC Augsburg xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
3%
29.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 0.84 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 19W 14D 18L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 14W 12D 25L from 51 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.39 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (13W 5D 7L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 6D 15L from 25 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1899 Hoffenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.04 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 19W 14D 18L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or FC Augsburg away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.76 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1899 Hoffenheim
4
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 60%, FC Augsburg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (1899 Hoffenheim) and 40% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 32%; FC Augsburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent matches and 44% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent games and 40% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat FC Augsburg 3-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.63 xG and FC Augsburg 0.84 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against FC Augsburg attack 0.72 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 54% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 17%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 67%, FC Augsburg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.39 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.