1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt meet at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1899 Hoffenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at PreZero Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — 1899 Hoffenheim are significantly better at PreZero Arena than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.60 for Eintracht Frankfurt. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
1899 Hoffenheim half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 62% and Eintracht Frankfurt 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 66% | Eintracht Frankfurt 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.88 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.214 / defence 0.813 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.057 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.256. Data: 47 1899 Hoffenheim games / 47 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 54% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 19%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Frankfurt 5.26. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 50% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 54% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.88 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.214 / def 0.813 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.057 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
1899 Hoffenheim 3 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 54% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1899 Hoffenheim's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.06x) against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.70
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.96
1.08
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
15%
6.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
3%
34.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.08 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1899 Hoffenheim's recent record stands at 17W 12D 18L from 47 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 9L across 47 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.66 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1899 Hoffenheim have managed 12W 4D 7L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 8W 7D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.81 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 81%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 17W 12D 18L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 20W 18D 9L in their last 47 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.74 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1899 Hoffenheim
2
Draws
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for 1899 Hoffenheim, 74% for Eintracht Frankfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 65% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1899 Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 74% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 65% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1899 Hoffenheim edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.88 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.08 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.21 / defence 0.81 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 54% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 19%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 66%, Eintracht Frankfurt 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.34 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.