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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Köln face Bayer Leverkusen.

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Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to RheinEnergieStadion to face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1. FC Köln haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bayer Leverkusen haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Bayer Leverkusen arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Bayer Leverkusen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 10 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to 1. FC Köln's 2, with 1 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 79% and Bayer Leverkusen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 65% | Bayer Leverkusen 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.66 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.969 / defence 1.120 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.042 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.822 / away 1.468. Data: 34 1. FC Köln games / 34 Bayer Leverkusen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 37% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 40%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 90% | Bayer Leverkusen 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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