1. FC Köln 1-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RheinEnergieStadion plays host to 1. FC Köln versus VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 19 December 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 5W 3D 2L at RheinEnergieStadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — 1. FC Köln are significantly better at RheinEnergieStadion than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.20 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, VfB Stuttgart in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: 1. FC Köln 0W, VfB Stuttgart 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2021, ended 0–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 66% and VfB Stuttgart 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 58% | VfB Stuttgart 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.71 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.041 / defence 1.175 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.869 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.315. Data: 50 1. FC Köln games / 50 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 44% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 28%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | VfB Stuttgart 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 70% | VfB Stuttgart 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 44% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.71 / VfB Stuttgart 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.041 / def 1.175 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.869 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.34
VfB Stuttgart xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart?
1. FC Köln 1 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 44% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.87x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.59
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.05
1.34
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
5%
19.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.34 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 14W 16D 20L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 16W 14D 20L from 50 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.24 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 8W 6D 10L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.56 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 68%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 14W 16D 20L in their last 50 games (1.16 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 16W 14D 20L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.21 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
VfB Stuttgart go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 on 18 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
6
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 1, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for 1. FC Köln, 62% for VfB Stuttgart — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Köln and 58% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of 1. FC Köln's games and 62% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 58% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do 1. FC Köln and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out VfB Stuttgart 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.71 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.34 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.04 / defence 1.18 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 44% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 28%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 58%, VfB Stuttgart 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.16 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.