1. FC Köln 3-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RheinEnergieStadion plays host to 1. FC Köln versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 1 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at RheinEnergieStadion, 1. FC Köln have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games (0.17 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.67 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. 1. FC Köln's 1.60 PPG return is 1.43 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.17 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 100% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 2.41 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.931 / defence 1.073 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.747 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.171. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.488 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 1. FC Köln games / 6 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 68% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9.09. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Köln (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 68% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Köln 2.41 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.931 / def 1.073 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.747 / def 1.488 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
0.94
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
58%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 1 October 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Köln 3 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 68% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.93) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.75x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
68%
1.48
22%
4.60
11%
9.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.35
0.94
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.48
68%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
9.39
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
9%
11.12
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
1%
104.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 0.94 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Köln's recent record stands at 2W 3D 1L from 6 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 5L across 6 games — 0.17 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Köln by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Köln have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — 1. FC Köln are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.67 scored and 2.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Köln's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 2.33 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
2
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for 1. FC Köln, 67% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1. FC Köln and 100% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of 1. FC Köln's games and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 2.41 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.94 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.75 / defence 1.49, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 68% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.17. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.