1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees SC Paderborn 07 travel to RheinEnergieStadion to take on 1. FC Köln. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Köln 0.90 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1. FC Köln, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 82% and SC Paderborn 07 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 66% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.96 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.931 / defence 1.089 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.604 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 2.008 / away 1.402. Data: 38 1. FC Köln games / 4 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 61% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 16%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | SC Paderborn 07 6.25. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Köln (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 90% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 61% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.96 / SC Paderborn 07 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.931 / def 1.089 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.604 / def 1.047 | league avg home 2.008 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
0.92
SC Paderborn 07 xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at RheinEnergieStadion.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 61% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.43
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.88
0.92
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
14%
7.08
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
2%
42.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 0.92 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Köln come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 12D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.74 PPG from 38 outings (19W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Köln's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.61 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.21 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
0
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when SC Paderborn 07 1-2 1. FC Köln.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Köln at 90%, SC Paderborn 07 at 42%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for 1. FC Köln and 47% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 47%; SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of 1. FC Köln's games and 42% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.