1. FC Köln 0-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round sees Holstein Kiel travel to RheinEnergieStadion to take on 1. FC Köln. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 26 May 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at RheinEnergieStadion, 1. FC Köln have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.20 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.788 / defence 1.378 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.327. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 1. FC Köln games / 0 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 27% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 43%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Holstein Kiel 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 27% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.20 / Holstein Kiel 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.788 / def 1.378 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Holstein Kiel xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 26 May 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Köln 0 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel part of?
1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel is a Relegation Round fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 27% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Holstein Kiel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Holstein Kiel in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. 1. FC Köln home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
27%
3.69
30%
3.38
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.75
1.55
Holstein Kiel xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
6%
17.46
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.55 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Pre-Season
Holstein Kiel
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
0
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Holstein Kiel?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 1, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2021, when Holstein Kiel 1-5 1. FC Köln.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out 1. FC Köln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat 1. FC Köln 0-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Relegation Round, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.20 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.55 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.79 / defence 1.38 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 27% | Draw 30% | Holstein Kiel 43%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.