1. FC Köln 3-2 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and FSV Mainz 05 meet at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
1. FC Köln at RheinEnergieStadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FSV Mainz 05 away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Köln lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 61% versus FSV Mainz 05 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 53% | FSV Mainz 05 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.44 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.817 / defence 0.878 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.832 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.320. Data: 62 1. FC Köln games / 62 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 46% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | FSV Mainz 05 4.17. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Köln 40% | FSV Mainz 05 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 46% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.44 / FSV Mainz 05 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.817 / def 0.878 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.832 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
0.96
FSV Mainz 05 xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05?
1. FC Köln 3 - 2 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 46% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both 1. FC Köln and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 1 | FSV Mainz 05 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and FSV Mainz 05 in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.82) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.83x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
46%
2.15
30%
3.34
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.41
0.96
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
17.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 0.96 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln come into this having played 62 games, going 19W 19D 24L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, FSV Mainz 05 sit at 1.24 PPG from 62 outings (21W 14D 27L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.24 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Köln's home form reads 10W 9D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have taken 1.00 points per game from 31 outings (8W 7D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.29 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 19W 19D 24L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 21W 14D 27L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.26 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
1. FC Köln have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 5-0 on 21 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
4
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when 1. FC Köln 2-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and FSV Mainz 05?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for 1. FC Köln, 71% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (1. FC Köln) and 61% (FSV Mainz 05). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of 1. FC Köln's games and 71% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 61% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do 1. FC Köln and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out FSV Mainz 05 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat FSV Mainz 05 3-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.44 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.96 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.82 / defence 0.88 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 46% | Draw 30% | FSV Mainz 05 24%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 53%, FSV Mainz 05 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.23 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.