1. FC Köln 3-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg meet at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln at RheinEnergieStadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for 1. FC Köln, 1.60 for FC Augsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: 1. FC Köln 2W, FC Augsburg 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 4–1 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 70% and FC Augsburg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 54% | FC Augsburg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.38 xG and FC Augsburg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.972 / defence 0.921 | FC Augsburg attack 0.926 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.403. Data: 43 1. FC Köln games / 43 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 40% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 32%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | FC Augsburg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 50% | FC Augsburg 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 40% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.38 / FC Augsburg 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.972 / def 0.921 | FC Augsburg attack 0.926 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FC Augsburg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
1. FC Köln 3 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg part of?
1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 40% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Köln 2W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.97) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.93x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.59
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.58
1.20
FC Augsburg xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.20 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 17W 14D 12L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 14W 9D 20L from 43 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.19 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 6W 4D 11L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.12 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 17W 14D 12L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 9D 20L in their last 43 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or FC Augsburg away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.81 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 1-4 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
3
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, FC Augsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-0 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 57%, FC Augsburg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (1. FC Köln) and 48% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 33%; 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Augsburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 43% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 48% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out FC Augsburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat FC Augsburg 3-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.38 xG and FC Augsburg 1.20 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.97 / defence 0.92 against FC Augsburg attack 0.93 / defence 0.87, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 40% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 32%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 54%, FC Augsburg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.51 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.